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Exceedance Probability (EP) is one of the most commonly used metrics in catastro-phe modeling. It is the probability that a certain loss value will be exceeded in a prede ned future time period.

Catastrophe modeling [1] (also known as cat modeling) is the process of using computer-assisted calculations to estimate the losses that could be sustained due to a catastrophic event such as a hurricane or earthquake.

What Is a Catastrophe Model? Catastrophe models provide comprehensive information on current and future loss potential. Historical data reflects population, building codes, and replacement values at time of historical loss. Coastal population concentrations and replacement costs have been rapidly increasing. 1.

This article will discuss the use of results from popular Property Catastrophe mod-els. It will explain common terms like Occurrence Exceedance Probability (OEP) and Aggregate Exceedance Probability (AEP) and show how these are related to event count and event size ideas. Simulation and the use of multiple models (blending) will also be discussed.

2017年2月14日 · EP curves tell you the likelihood that a loss of any given size or greater will occur in a given year. They come in two flavors: Aggregate EP curves, which represent losses from all events each year, and Occurrence EP curves, which represent the losses from only the single largest event each year.

The Annual Exceedance Probability (“AEP”) gives the probability of total losses in the year of a given size or larger.