Bayes’ Theorem (also known as Bayes’ rule) is a deceptively simple formula used to calculate c… 展开

You might be interested in finding out a patient’s probability of having liver disease if they are an alcoholic. “Being an alcoholic” is the test(kind of like a litmus test) for liver disease. 1. Acou… 展开

Another way to look at the theorem is to say that one event follows another. Above I said “tests” and “events”, but it’s also legitimate to think of it as the “first event” that leads to the … 展开

A slightly more complicated example involves a medical test (in this case, a genetic test): There are several forms of Bayes’ Theorem out there, and they are all equivalent (they … 展开

I wrote about how challenging physicians find probability and statistics in my post on reading mammogram results wrong.It’s not surprising that physicians are way off with their interpretatio… 展开